If this is your first season betting on baseball, well, you picked an interesting one. Unlike football and basketball where the majority of bets are based on the point spreadbaseball is a moneyline sport. This means that bettors need to pick only who wins the game, not who covers.

Think of it as picking coloured balls out of a giant box. There are yellow balls and red balls in the box the yellow balls representing your 56 per cent winners. Even though 56 per cent of the balls in the box are yellow, you might pick 25 or more red balls in your first 50 picks. Over 1, picks out of the box, however, the law of averages says that you would pick a yellow ball approximately times. The more times you pick a ball out of the box, the more likely you are to pick more yellow ones.

Similarly, the more bets you make as a bettor expecting to win 56 per cent of your games, the more likely you are to win more than you lose. Someone might get on a lucky run at the Blackjack table and make some quick money, but over the long run the odds against the player will ensure the casino makes its money in the end. I have subscribed to your feed which must do the trick! Have a nice day! I agree with the premise of the article, just trying understand how they got the 2.

Would like to talk about your college football records. If interested I can be emailed at tommydin gmail. If you really had that ability, you could move to Las Vegas, place your bets at the sports books, and win millions of dollars each year.

These guys are deadon!!! Sure, there may be an occasional, very,very rare exception, but just what are those odds??? Your article sort if glosses over your math and how you ran your regression. I know that might be a bit heavy for some people from a statistical explanation point I find this to be little light on details and proof.

PJ is simply using the normal approximation to the binomial distribution. You can find the relevant formula in any introductory textbook on probability. All you guys got it wrong. Stats can be skewed any way you want them to look so just look at the black and white.

All that matters is performance, right? In sports betting all one needs is a There are certainly better picks than others. What it comes down to is endurance and stamina keeping away from the distractions of Las Vegas. Simply put, your 1 trillion to one statements are raw math not taking into account of intelligence and everchanging information which ultimately contributes to the outcome of each pick.

Mathematically, however, it is not impossible. From a probability standpoint, every individual combination of wins and losses is equally likely to occur even in random results. Thus, flipping a coin you are equally likely to have heads come up times in a row as you are to0 have heads and tails alternate perfectly for the entire flips, or to get any other predicted combination of heads and tails.

Of course the odds against any particularly combination appearing at random are immense 2 multiplied by itself times Try it on your calculator and see how far you get before your calculator goes on tilt. The reason is that only one result will satisfy the requirement of any set combination.

There are thousands of combinations that will provide wins and losses. Then divide the first number by the second number. But there is yeat another fly in the soup. A result of wins and losses will do. In fact, any result that provides more than wins and even a few results sli8ghtly less than wins will do. That means we can add hundreds of thousands of possible combinations in the games that will get him to where he needs to be.

Thus, the question, is: How did you calculate any of the probabilities you provide in the article? Do you have some formula that does it for you? A computer program perhaps? A little transparency is necessary if you want to credibly prove something scientifically or mathematically. Without transparency, you are simply spouting propaganda and become as bad as muck you claim to be raking. Not every team is equally likely to cover the spread. Much has to do with the ability of the line maker to be accurate,in predicting the game, and the line maker is not trying to pick the game accurately — he is trying to even out public sentiment, which is quite a different matter.

Then the public comes in and moves the line further to correct for the errors of the line maker in predicting sentiment. It is those errors in the line as a game predictor that account for the fact that year in and year out the Vegas casinos fail to hold their full 4.

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Online betting south africa sports | A person of average intelligence can become a winning winning percentage sports betting if they have the desire. Oberbettingen karnevalsumzug 2021 movies, skewed public perception, results-oriented analysisand unsound metrics result in point spreads that are often biased one way or another. As demonstrated above, a bettor only needs to win While the odds makers do to try approximate the median margin of victory between two teams, they also try to reduce their exposure to risk by setting lines such that the public money will fall evenly on both sides of a game, so that they can offset the bets against each other and earn a profit on the juice cut of winnings taken by the house, explained below without exposing themselves to large potential losses. The NBA Guru has an incredible record of The average person with a full-time job, family commitments, and other hobbies is unlikely to have the time to fully research every aspect of a game to make an informed decision on whether or not a wager is a profitable one. |

Top online cricket betting websites | A large amount of data available via the internet and winning percentage sports betting sources means that the handicapper has more information but it means there is more top sports betting forums sift through to find the gems. One caveat to this entire equation is the assumption that each and every one of those wagers are for the same amount. A handicapper takes information from numerous sources, assigns weights and values to it. All that matters is performance, right? To accomplish this they assign a line or spread to make the contest equally attractive for both sides. The NBA Guru has an incredible record of Updated November 04, |

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Packer bears betting line | How much has the line been skewed by public? As you can see, a sports bettor with no edge has only a 2. I know that might be a bit heavy for some people from a statistical explanation point I find this to be little light on details and proof. Before making any wager, one should come up with the percentage of time they believe the pick will win and compare that number with the break-even percentage for that level of juice. Thus, the question, is: How did you calculate any of the probabilities you provide in the article? |

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With this in mind, you should only make wagers on picks you believe will pay-off more than However, you could also wager on the money line. The money line is a wager on who will win the game. Instead of taking or laying points, the sportsbook will adjust the juice for each team based on how favored they are to win the matchup. Before making any wager, one should come up with the percentage of time they believe the pick will win and compare that number with the break-even percentage for that level of juice.

If you believe Team B is going to win Despite your confidence in this team, if they actually only win that game All this sounds like a lot of work to find the break-even point for each juice before you make a wager. Kyle Kontos is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Kyle, check out his archive.

If there are no tie results, you need to divide the number of wins by the total number of games wins and losses :. For example, let's assume that your favorite basketball team has played 82 games and won 48 of them. Their winning percentage is. If on the other hand, you want to include ties into the whole calculation, the formula gets a bit more complicated. In such a case, you can calculate the percentage in the following way:. For this equation, the number of games is the sum of win, loss, and tie results on the team's record.

To get a better understanding of this formula, let's consider the following example: a football team playing in the National Football League has played 16 games in total. They lost 4 of them and got a tie result in 5. What is their winning percentage? Instead of calculating the win percentage, you should use our odds calculator to determine the chances you have when betting on them. Embed Share via. Number of games. Winning percentage.

Most of them belong to professional betting syndicates that hire teams of statisticians, wager millions every week and keep their operations secret. How is that possible? Units provide a standardized way for betters to compare and explain winnings, without introducing the bias of having a larger or smaller bankroll. That means you win approximately 0. The return on investment ROI is one of the most fundamental concepts in any form of business or money-making venture.

In the long run, ROI also measures the percentage your bankroll had increased or decreased from when you first started. Sports betting employs similar strategies to any other type of risk-based investing. While winning percentage and units won are more commonly examined by bettors measuring their success, the most basic way to measure success on a given wager or a series of wagers is examining your return on investment. So, in terms of importance, you want to think of winning percentage, units, and ROI as three layers of a pyramid; the larger the layer, the more important it is to you as a gambler.

However, the Kelly formula assumes sequential betting and sports betting usually involves simultaneous betting, which is part of the reason behind using some fraction of full Kelly to reduce risk. If I play 2. Adjusting your bankroll after each week rather than flat betting will increase your expected return, as explained in the KC simulation section of my money management section. A basketball season with Using a conservative 1.

The NBA Guru has an incredible record of You can risk more of your bankroll per play with the NBA Guru because he has a higher win percentage and fewer plays. I recommend 2. Money Management is as critical to a sports investor as picking winners. I have devoted many hours of careful analysis and math to optimal money management systems, which I have painstakingly outlined in my Money Management articles. My Money Management articles outline how to adjust your bet sizing based on your goals expected return vs.

It is always better to set conservative expectations to avoid over betting. You must factor in that cost when calculating your expected return on investment ROI. Doing so would have an expected total return Using an optimal betting strategy, as explained in the advanced money management section , would yield even higher long term returns while protecting the downside risk in the inevitable negative variance seasons that plague even the best long term handicappers.

That percentage return is higher for higher bankrolls and lower for lower bankrolls since the cost of service becomes a smaller percentage of higher bankrolls and a higher percentage of smaller bankrolls. The calculations above are based on expected results based on long term records and some years are better and some years are worse.

Before I delve into rigorous explanations of how a bettor can gain an advantage against the point spread, it is important to understand what the spread actually represents. If the point spread is Point spreads are designed so that the probability of each outcome is roughly equal, and are generally set so as to approximate the median score differential between the two teams at the given site of the game. However, skewed public perception, results-oriented analysis , and unsound metrics result in point spreads that are often biased one way or another.

While the odds makers do to try approximate the median margin of victory between two teams, they also try to reduce their exposure to risk by setting lines such that the public money will fall evenly on both sides of a game, so that they can offset the bets against each other and earn a profit on the juice cut of winnings taken by the house, explained below without exposing themselves to large potential losses.