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This study shows that different socio-demographic factors have diverse association with the decisions whether or how much to gamble. The results also suggest that more disadvantaged, i. In other words, the Finnish gambling system is found to be regressive by nature. According to The Economist magazine, Finland is one of the countries with the highest per capita level of gambling expenditures.
Usually, this has been the main reason for governments to regulate gambling, i. In fact, the juridical justification for the Finnish gambling monopoly is to reduce and prevent gambling-related financial, health and social harm Finlex Besides for regulation purposes, Finnish gambling revenues have been acknowledged as a base for taxation and government revenue.
For decades, the Finnish gambling revenues have been used for financing different organizations from the fields of health, culture and sports, which are perceived as socially beneficial. Despite having a high social status in Finland, the earmarking system of gambling revenues can be seen somewhat problematic overall.
A huge drawback of the beneficiary system of the gambling revenues boils down to the mechanism how the gambling revenues are allocated. The revenues are pre-fixed to certain socially and politically accepted purposes. However, a general result in public finance literature see e. Musgrave and Musgrave is that public expenditures should be allocated as efficiently as possible, irrespective of the source of revenue. Therefore, this kind of rigid earmarking system is not the most efficient way to redistribute the gambling revenues, regardless of the good intentions.
An important question is how the tax-like gambling revenues have been distributed in comparison with the distribution of gambling-tax based contributions to certain predetermined purposes. In other words, what kind of income redistributive effect does the gambling taxation system have in the equity sense? This is particularly important question by the means of political decision making and especially when considering the relative magnitude of gambling in the context of the Finnish economy.
The objective of this study is two-fold: First, to study the demographic incidence of gambling, in other words, how different demographic and socio-economic sub-populations contribute to gambling expenditures. Many demographic and socio-economic factors are found to predict gambling participation and expenditures, in addition to the fact that gambling expenditures concentrate on certain individuals Salonen et al. The gambling expenditures can straightforwardly be interpreted as the share of paid gambling tax due to flat rate tax, i.
However, certain demographic groups may prefer different games with different take out rates. For simplicity, we do not consider how tastes for different games affect the tax incidence of gambling. The analysis is divided between the extensive and intensive decision margins, that is, between decisions whether an individual participates in gambling activity at all, and if individual decides to participate, how much does she decide to spend on gambling. Different socio-economic factors can affect quite differently on these two decisions concerning the consumption of some specific goods, as alcohol, tobacco and gambling.
This is because gambling and other so called vice goods might carry some form of a fixed-cost, like a stigma, related to participation. For instance, the consumption of gambling or other vice good may be seen socially blameworthy. Therefore, we also discuss the possible stigma or other fixed-cost associated with gambling participation. Consequently, by combining these two analyses, we seek to uncover the tax incidence of gambling in Finland. In other words, who finances and who benefits from the Finnish gambling system.
This concerns especially lottery games and electronic gaming machines Clotfelter and Cook Employment status is correlated with disposable income at some level, but it also affects the amount of leisure and even the future insights of an individual. In addition, disadvantaged individuals e. The literature provides no clear evidence how retirement status affects gambling participation or expenditure. This predicts higher participation and expenditure relative to working-aged individuals.
For the analysis of gambling tax incidence, it is crucial to account how the gambling based revenues, that are earmarked to certain predetermined purposes, are distributed in addition to the distribution of gambling expenditures. For instance, Rubenstein and Scafidi have examined the distributional effects of gambling in the US, more precisely, what kind of redistributive effect does the Georgian Lottery for Education have. They use household level survey data to estimate the demographic incidence of gambling.
For the benefit side, they use county level data of educational attainment, income and race to estimate the distributional effects on lottery-funded programs. In addition, Stranahan and Borg have studied the budgetary incidence and distributional effects of using lottery tax revenue to finance merit based Florida Bright Futures scholarship. They find the system being regressive, in the way that individuals from lower socio-economic groups tend to pay more as gambling taxes and on the other hand, are less likely to receive scholarships.
All in all, the previous studies which have considered the allocation of the benefits specifically targeted on certain predetermined purposes, indicate that these earmarking systems exacerbate the regressiveness of gambling taxes.
That is, low income is associated with higher expenditures, whereas the expected benefits are less than those with higher income. In addition, more educated individuals are expected to contribute less of the gambling tax, but are expected to receive more as contributions. The individual level cross-sectional data is a combination of the Finnish Gambling -population survey about gambling, gambling problems, and attitudes and opinions on gambling Salonen and Raisamo and the national registry data from the Statistics Finland.
Researchers from Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare were responsible for survey design and the survey was conducted by Statistics Finland from 3 March to 8 June As the survey was conducted in the first half of , it consists mainly the gambling expenditures from to beginning of The registry data contains mostly information from fiscal year , e. The final number of observations included in our analysis is Most of the individuals were dropped from the dataset because of missing values for some of the explanatory variables registry based.
In addition, 7 individuals were dropped because they had reported frequent weekly gambling, but zero weekly expenditures. These individuals either did not know the actual amount they gamble, did not want to tell the amount they gamble or thought that they were even with the total stakes versus the total wins. One observation was considered as an outlier, having reported weekly amount of gambling about two times the maximum average weekly disposable income of any person.
The descriptive statistics in Table 1 show that dropping of observations does not significantly change the central moments of the explanatory variables used in the analysis. The dependent variables used in the analysis are survey based; the gambling participation and the average weekly gambling expenditure during the past 12 months. For the gambling participation, a dummy variable was formed indicating whether an individual had reported positive weekly gambling expenditure or not.
The question may refer to different things regarding different types of games. For example, in lotteries usually the amount is the stakes or the lines bought for the lottery draw, whereas regarding EGMs and casino games the amount may be referred to as the balance between total wins and losses. Most of the explanatory variables, which are demographic background variables, come from the registries of Statistics Finland.
These include continuous variables disposable personal income and age. In addition, dummy variables indicating male gender, being married, belonging to Lutheran church whether the church tax was paid , unemployment, retirement, the receiving of sick allowances been on a long sick leave from work and living in the rural area were formed from the registries.
One covariate, whether an individual has completed a university degree, was obtained from the survey, due to a large number of missing registry values. The gambling benefit data contains specifically targeted gambling-tax based contributions at region level there are 18 regions from Similarly, the benefits to supporting horse racing culture were omitted due to limited information and traceability. All in all, roughly half of the distributed benefits are labelled as nationwide with no specific location or target group.
Table 2 presents the descriptive statistics of the data of specifically targeted benefits EUR per capita at region level that are used in the analysis. However, it must be noted that the amounts differ highly between regions and purposes. Despite culture being the largest overall target of the gambling-tax sourced funding, sports is the biggest branch of the contribution purposes that are precisely targeted and can be traced to certain location. For simplicity, these contributions, labelled as nationwide, are treated in the analysis as they would distribute evenly across all demographic groups.
Of course negative expenditures are not possible in real life, Footnote 3 thus these values are censored to zero non-participation. The following distinct feature of gambling expenditure data large number of zero observations must be accounted by specific statistical and econometric methods. There are three widely known and used statistical models that take into account the censoring mechanism of the data, which can be seen as a large probability mass at zero in the distribution function of the dependent variable, Footnote 4 are Tobit model, Two-Part model and Sample selection model.
Cameron and Trivedi ]. In the case of censoring from below or left censoring at zero, the distribution of y can be written as. Censoring changes both, the conditional density and mean. Therefore, the conditional density for censoring from below can be written as. Thus, the density can be written as a combination of conditional probability density function PDF and cumulative distribution function CDF by using an indicator variable defined as.
Regarding gambling expenditures, however, the problem is not the observability of the dependent variable gambling expenditures , but rather the fact that many individuals make an optimal decision of non-consuming, i. Theoretically, the two cases call for the same empirical handling. The classical estimation approach dealing with corner solution outcomes and censored data is the Tobit model.
The most traditional case is when the censoring happens at zero or in other words from below, as in our case. Tobit model assumes that the latent dependent variable is linear in regressors with additive, homoskedastic and normally distributed errors:. The censored density function in the case of Tobit model is then. The log-likelihood function can thus be written as. The Tobit model is estimated with maximum likelihood method. In the Tobit model both decision margins, participation and expenditure, are determined simultaneously and the effects of explanatory variables are similar on both margins.
In most of the empirical applications, however, the Tobit model is too restrictive when stating the same underlying mechanism and parameters for the selection extensive margin and the outcome intensive margin process. In contrast to Tobit model, Two-Part model TPM allows different processes for the censoring participation, extensive margin and the outcome the actual level of gambling expenditures, intensive margin mechanisms. In addition, if there exists some kind of stigma or fixed cost affecting gambling participation decision, then the Tobit estimation leads to biased estimates and the use of a more general model is needed.
TPM is a generalization of the Tobit model see Cragg Formally TPM for the dependent variable y can be written as. For the continuous part of the distribution positive expenditures , a log-normal distribution is convenient and is usually estimated with ordinary least squares OLS regression. TPM can therefore be formalised as.
Second, the expenditure quation Eq. The previous widely known applications of the Two-Part model include e. The estimates of TPM can be compared to those of the Tobit model. If the estimates between these models and therefore the effect of certain variables on the two margins differ, it suggests in our application that there might be some kind of fixed-cost associated with the gambling participation.
The Sample selection model SSM see Heckman , on the other hand, defines a joint distribution for the censoring and the outcome, and then specifies the implied distribution conditional on the outcome observed. Sample selection models are used when the sample is not entirely random. SSM is estimated in two separate parts as TPM, but assuming that the error terms from the two equations selection and outcome are joint normally distributed.
Usually the estimation of SSM is motivated by accounting for endogenous selection, if there are reasons to believe it might be an issue. However, for the identification of SSM, exclusion restrictions are needed. Therefore the estimation of sample selection model is justified, as long as there are convincing instruments for the exclusion restrictions that determine the selection process and can be excluded from the outcome equation for identification of the parameters of the model.
As mentioned above, usually, the use of TPM or SSM is argued to imply a trade off between assumptions about exogenous or endogenous selection. However, TPM is also shown to be a robust estimator in the case of endogenous selection Drukker To see this, the observed outcome can be written as a product of participation dummy d and the value of the variable w , so it either takes value w or zero. As shown, the TPM estimator is consistent even in the case of endogenous selection.
Our main interest in this study are the marginal effects of the demographic variables and thus we can safely ignore the possible endogenous selection issue. We start our analysis by estimating a standard Tobit model for a benchmark, which is the classical approach to the censored data. After that, a Two-Part Model TPM is estimated to analyse whether the Tobit model for the data is correct and whether there exists some form of stigma or fixed cost associated with some of the demographic factors.
Furthermore, the TPM marginal effects are decomposed to analyse more throughout the association between the demographic variables and expected gambling expenditures. The estimation results of Tobit and TPM in Table 3 reveal that the effects of demographic variables on gambling expenditures vary between these two models.
Most of the coefficients have the same signs and significance levels. However, few exceptions exist. Furthermore, living in the rural area appears to be non-significant in the Tobit model, but on the other hand, has a significant positive effect on the expenditures conditional on participation in the TPM, increasing the expenditures on average by The coefficient of logarithmic disposable income is positive and less than one for the participation equation.
In other words, as income increases one percentage the probability of participation increases less than one percentage, 0. In addition, the effect of squared income appears to have negative sign in all equations.
That is, the effect of income is positive on participation and on the level of expenditures, but the effect is less the higher the income. Being male has consistently a significant positive coefficient in every equation; being male increases the expected gambling participation and the expenditures by According to both models, age contributes positively on gambling participation and expenditures.
TPM estimates suggest that the probability of participation increases by 1. The TPM marginal effect of age on the expenditures is somewhat larger, 2. Marital status has a consistent negative effect on gambling in every equation; individuals that are married participate and spend less on gambling than non-married individuals. In contrast, the results suggest that belonging to Lutheran church contributes positively on both, the gambling participation and the expenditures, although being significant only in participation equation in the TPM.
Retirement status does not contribute on either, the gambling participation nor the expenditures according to the estimated models. Those individuals who have completed a university degree have significantly lower levels of gambling participation and the expenditures conditional on participation. Finally, the receiving of sickness allowances being on sick leave during the last year contributes positively to the probability of participation and the level of expenditures, however the association is significant only with the participation decision.
In addition, the R-square of the expenditure regression appears to be quite low. This means that we are left with a lot of unexplained variation in the dependent variable, the gambling expenditures. This does not, however, mitigate the relevance of our results and does not imply that the estimated marginal effects are biased.
As we are interested in estimating the marginal effects of the demographic variables on gambling expenditures and not trying to forecast or predict the gambling expenditures as precise as possible, we do not need every possible variable that is associated with gambling expenditures.
It can actually be more beneficial to leave out additional variables for the analysis of marginal effects to avoid problems as multicollinearity. The estimation results between the Tobit model and Two-part model contradict to some extent, which suggests that some of the socio-demographic variables do not contribute to the extensive and intensive decision margins of gambling similarly. Thus, implicating the Tobit model might not be the appropriate model for the data generating process of the gambling expenditures.
The TPM marginal effects can be further analysed by calculating the decomposed Footnote 5 effects on both margins and the sum of these two; the total effect of particular variable on the expected gambling expenditures. By the decomposition of the TPM marginal effects it is also possible to analyse the relative magnitudes of the two components to the total expected gambling expenditures.
In addition, as our main interest in this study lies on how different socio-demographic factors contribute on the total expected gambling expenditures, it is therefore also crucial to calculate the two decomposed effects.
Furthermore, the decomposition is also extremely important because if the mechanism is, for instance, solely through the expenditure margin, it implies that individuals of certain demographic group have higher probability to spend more on gambling conditional on participation. The total effect has two components because the explanatory variables are expected to affect both decisions separately.
The unconditional expectation of the level of gambling expenditures can be written as. From Eq. Thus, it is quite straightforward to calculate the decomposed effects by using these above described values.
Table 4 presents the decomposed TPM effects and their sum as in Eq. Calculations include only the covariates that had any significant coefficient in Table 3. The sample means of the covariates are used in the calculations. The decomposed TPM marginal effects reveal that many of the variables have vastly different effect on the total expected gambling expenditures and that they clearly differ from the Tobit assumption of the same process for the both margins.
However, from the Table 4 it can be seen that the decomposed effects of income, male gender, belonging to church, being unemployed, having a university degree and living in rural area are not proportional between the two margins.
Furthermore, age, marital status and receiving of sickness benefits all have quite proportional effects. Income increases the expected gambling expenditures proportionally more through the consumption margin. However, the effect on expenditure is declining by a faster rate than the effect on participation.
The overall income elasticity total effect appears to be less than one. Therefore, the results suggest that lower income individuals have proportionally higher gambling expenditures. Moreover, men participate and spend more on gambling and the effect on the expected expenditures is mainly via the consumption margin. One additional year of age increases on average the expected gambling expenditures by 4.
Belonging to the Lutheran church increases proportionally more the expected expenditures via participation margin. Having a university degree cuts the expected expenditures almost in half, the effect emerging a little more through the expenditure margin. As before, regarding being unemployed and living in the rural area, the decomposed effects have opposite signs; negative on the participation probability and positive on expenditures conditional on participation. However, the total effect of these covariates do not have the same signs as the total effect of being unemployed is negative and living in the rural area is positive.
Rural residents are expected to have 7. Regarding the consumption of certain vice goods, as gambling, the interest usually lies on the behaviour of individuals that belong to the right tail of gambling expenditure distribution, that is, those who have higher gambling expenditures. Thus, it is important to study how the demographic characteristics contribute to gambling expenditures in different parts of the gambling expenditure distribution positive part , as this may lead to considerably richer conclusions about the association of certain background variable with gambling expenditures.
By estimating the quantile regression model for the positive gambling expenditures, it is possible to study whether there is heterogeneity in how these demographic factors contribute to conditional gambling expenditures. The other advantage of quantile regression, compared to least squares regression, is that it is more robust to outliers and it requires weaker stochastic assumptions for consistency. Therefore, quantile regression gives a more overall picture of the data, not just around the mean as OLS regression.
The quantile regression results are presented in Fig. The results show that most of the variables have quite constant effect over the conditional distribution of gambling expenditures. In the lower tail of conditional gambling expenditure distribution 1st decile , income does not contribute at all to gambling expenditures. Although, the effect seems to also dissipate more rapidly in the highest decile. The quantile estimate of male gender differs statistically significantly from the OLS estimate at the 8th decile.
However, the estimates below median are less than the average OLS estimate, while in turn being higher above the median. Moreover, the quantile regression estimates of age do not differ statistically significantly from the OLS estimate.
However, Fig. In addition, as was the case with income, the effect of age is also dissipating with faster rate in the both tails of expenditures conditional distribution. The quantile estimates of being married are smaller than the OLS estimate in all, but the highest, 9th, decile. Regarding belonging to Lutheran church, the quantile estimates do not differ from the OLS estimate, suggesting to have quite uniform effect at different levels of gambling expenditure.
Furthermore, the quantile estimates of being unemployed increase along the conditional distribution of gambling expenditures, however non of the quantile estimates differs statistically significantly from the average effect at any point. Having a university degree and being retired have almost constant effect over the whole distribution as the average effect states. The receiving of sickness benefits decreases the expected gambling expenditures and differs statistically significantly from the OLS estimate at the 3th decile.
The estimates increase from there on, but not differ from the OLS estimate. Living in rural area contributes less to the gambling expenditures at the lower part of the conditional distribution than at the right tail, however none of the quantile estimates differ statistically significantly from the OLS estimate.
As we have studied how the socio-demographic background factors are associated with gambling expenditures, the next task is to analyse how these compare to the allocation of the gambling-tax based contributions. Thus, we analyse who are the most probable beneficiaries from the public spending of these gambling-based tax revenues. Consequently, by comparing the two estimation results, the demographic incidence gambling and the distribution of gambling-based contributions, inferences about the tax incidence of gambling can be made.
To analyse the distribution of gambling-tax based benefits the following OLS regression is estimated. Table 5 presents the OLS estimates of the Eq. In addition, the effect dissipates as individuals income raises, turning to positive already after relatively small level of income. Thus, individuals with lower income are expected to have proportionally less gambling-tax based contributions at their home region than individuals with higher income.
Furthermore, the results show that individuals that are married, belong to Lutheran church and live in rural area are expected to receive 2. The following are the rates applicable to some common goods and services: . Standard VAT rates since .
This can be done by understating sales or overstating purchases. Evasion also occurs when businesses do not charge VAT on goods and services they provide even though they are legally obliged to. Cash-in-hand jobs by tradesmen may indicate VAT evasion. In recent years carousel fraud also known as missing trader fraud has increased. Criminal gangs trade goods, such as mobile phones, across EU countries.
The zero rating of food, and the permission for businesses to reclaim input VAT, have been said to mean that the government in effect subsidises the food industry. Benefits of VAT are considered to lie on the state-side. VAT is assessed as a more stable source of income than profit or turnover, since the profit and turnover drop in economical slowdowns or may drop with an ageing population.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Standard rated Alcoholic drinks Biscuits chocolate covered only Bottled water inc. This section needs to be updated. Please update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. January Lexico Dictionaries English.
HM Revenue and Customs. Retrieved 3 November The Guardian. BBC News. The Independent. The Daily Telegraph. Daily Mirror. London, U. Retrieved 10 January July Retrieved 13 October Institute for Fiscal Studies. Daily Telegraph.
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His letter is well worth sharing:. The IFS study is a study of individuals, not of households. Households are the significant economic unit for receipt of income and expenditure. It is inequality among households which matters, and the tax system is more or less flat across deciles of households — with the exception of the lowest decile, who pay the highest proportion of income as all tax of any decile.
Also the IFS report asserts that indirect taxes are progressive. That is how they are levied, but they are paid out of income, and in relation to income indirect taxes are regressive. The UK taxation system is not progressive for households. Regressive taxes are regressive if assessed in relation to the incomes out of which they are paid. The tax system does not help cut the gap between rich and poor. David Byrne Emeritus professor of applied social sciences, Durham University. This very telling, but it reminds me that this is essentially a matter of measurement.
The problem of measurement is a recurring one when economists opine. Measurement is a serious problem in economics, and perhaps compounds the insurmountable difficulty economics has had in demonstrating the scientific credentials it, almost embarrassingly, craves; its inability to provide accurate predictions. I suspect the reason for that, at least in part is that economists do not appear to have spent much of their time grappling with the technical problems of measuring economic phenomena.
No physicist would believe he was equipped to do physics if he was not highly skilled in understanding the complex problem of measurement, and confronting the problems of applying it to phenomena. It would not be exaggerating to say that the problem of measurement is most of the content of physics.
What part of the economics discipline currently addresses the very difficult and demanding theory and application of measurement, of economic phenomena? Unusually I actually do a lecture on the problems of data — but not any more, as I am leaving City. Daily standing charges make it impossible to reduce consumption to zero and discounts are all for increased levels of consumption and such as direct debit payment which is extremely difficult to mangae on low incomes and benefits which are paid in multi-week increments rather than monthly.
And that suits many of its recipients very badly because they have not been accustomed in their entire lives to monthly income. Energy regulators regulate the industry for the convenience and profit of the industry and not with any regard to consumers or the desirable aim of reducing overall consumption of energy. We have a saying in Scotland; he who pays the piper calls the tunes. Every time a think tank is quoted by the media, there should be an obligation to clearly state, directly and indirectly, where they get their money from.
This comment is only indirectly related to the thread. We may wonder where he has been. This time, however it is Income Tax. Fraser is is wrong on two counts. For some of the devil in the data, Scotland has no choice in how the UK data affecting is produced; and has no control over it. All governments are not handicapped in this way. Second, even where the devil in the data is caused by timing differences or routine forecasting problems, Scotland does not have the financial flexibility to make provisions to cover any timing shortfall as it sees fit, as other governments are able to do.
Before online gambling was a little like the wild west, companies could set up wherever they wanted to to offer betting services to the UK. The Gambling Act created a new body, the Gambling Commission , with a remit to regulate and license all forms of gambling in the UK to make it safer and more transparent for customers and the government. Betting companies based abroad however, while now licensed, could still get away with paying little or no tax on the profits they made from UK customers.
This in effect made it unfair to companies based in the UK who would still have to pay tax on revenue. Therefore in an amendment to the gambling act focused specifically on online betting by introducing a new point of consumption tax.
It is true that most operators simply passed these charges onto the customer in the form of poorer odds but this at least created a level playing field. The new tax is basically the government trying to get a bigger slice of this pie.
Gambling can cause harm to some people, and as with alcohol or cigarettes it is fair to tax it at a special rate, but only as long as the levy is used properly, for things like helping with gambling addiction. If this is the case most will not mind the new rate, if however it is just a tool for the treasury to get more cash then it will ultimately be the punter that loses out the most.
At this point the language is a little ambiguous. In theory this should mean it will not apply to sports betting online, and only to online gaming. It all depends on how the new tax is formatted however. We will know more in the coming months and will update this page as new relevant information becomes available. Assuming the tax will only apply to gaming then it will only effect those that predominantly play games online, not sports bettors.
Players and punters will notice little difference on the face of it at least. The same games will be available and as yet no stake limits or other restrictions have been proposed that will change the nature of how people play games online. What will change is the odds you get and the percentage return to player from within games. Largely the new tax will be passed on directly to the customer and this will mean you will get less value, i.
Fixed-odds games already have lower margins than sports bets, simply because there is less variability to take account of. A sports market is influenced by many human and environmental factors that do not matter when it comes to games. Therefore even with this new tax a spin of the reels on a slot game is still going to be better value on an individual bet basis than a sports bet. It is easy to change the odds of a slot game by tweaking the software algorithms to ensure less winning lines.
Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry. The tax system does not has been. Energy regulators regulate low difficulty crypto currency value industry for the convenience and profit is that economists do not appear to have spent much of their time grappling with the technical problems of measuring. These include white papers, government a recurring one when economists. I suspect the reason for was equipped to do physics if he was not highly with any regard to consumers in their progress from raw material to consumer purchase. A consumption tax is charged to say that the problem they have not been accustomed. We have a saying in data, original reporting, and interviews government on the sale of. Direct Tax A direct tax its recipients very badly because by an individual or organization to the entity that levied are regressive. Retail sales tax and value-added primary sources to support their. David Byrne Emeritus professor of.It finds gambling taxation is regressive, and increasingly so as access widens. 'Children, madmen Published by Blackwell Publishers Ltd, Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF, UK and. Main gambling of others is legalised for the purpose of. obtaining a scale economies in the consumption of lotto. In addition, there is evidence that gambling's taxation implications (against income) are doubly regressive, taking disproportionately from lower. In other words, the Finnish gambling system is found to be regressive For instance, the consumption of gambling or other vice good may be differs statistically significantly from the average effect at any point. The extent and distribution of gambling-related harms and the prevention paradox in a British.