Hence there are clearly different levels of leverage we apply when the Box of Chocolates or Ewing Theory manifests. Quantitative Revolution: The use of computer models, simulations, and statistics to handicap sports. The best bare bones stats are on such sites as KenPom. Just like a chainsaw, when used properly, such aforesaid tools can save hours of work when a competent person is utilizing the tool. But disaster will strike when an unskilled person has access.
Perhaps Haralabos Voulgaris will soon make the same unearthing. All rights reserved. No portion of Vegas Top Dogs may be duplicated, redistributed, or manipulated in any form. Click to Bookmark Site. View Mobile Site. More Popular Stories. E-Mail Address:. Quality over Quantity. Jeff will average about NHL selections per week.
If you like a high ROI return on investment with very little risk than jump on board. Jeff has shown a profit in 17 of the past 22 Hockey seasons fully documented. Winning Streaks -. Article 5: Card-counter Edward Thorp was nearly killed by a casino. Article 6: From the most feared sports bettor in the world to prison, Billy Walters. Article 7: Australian Zeljko Ranogajec who sent a betting exchange bankrupt. Article 8: Taking the emotion out of betting, the story of Jeff Ma. Article Alan Woods , the master of quantitative betting.
Want to read about some of our customers who are on their way to becoming professional sports bettors too? My Value Betting Journey from 1k to 2k. Matias Interview - from 5k to 20k. Jonas Gjelstad Documentary Series - from 10k to 1m. Bob made all of his sports betting fortunes from Basketball. Losing a third of his bankroll in one month After five years of success, Bob hit the wall in when he went on a long run of losses, losing a third of his bankroll in one month.
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|Haralabos voulgaris nba betting odds||He was very, very superstitious. I think this guy has mentioned me too. It's all about perspective. In pursuit of this, in Voulgaris broke one of the cardinal rules of the sharp sports bettor: He sought publicity, conducting interviews with gambling and NBA-centric blogs. Just one example, but pretty clearly there was no "edge" there when Avery Johnson was coaching the Nets.|
|England australia cricket betting adda||In my opinion, there is no difference between investing in sports betting and investing in the stock market. As mega hashes per bitcoins purely subjective bettor, Voulgaris had been placing perhaps individual wagers each season. If you work for the league or work for the media, it is harder to get to work for a team than going the other way. Buying stocks are a gamble, yet you always hear people talk about investing instead of gambling. A coin flip is inherently random, a sports contest is not.|
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At times they wagered together. His two months in Vegas -- and, really, the whole of his childhood -- were an education by counterexample. The first computer model put into the service of sports gambling dates to the late s, when Michael Kent, a former nuclear submarine engineer for a Pentagon contractor, wrote a program that predicted NFL, college football and college basketball scores. At the time, though, he was going up against green-eyeshade bookmakers armed with nothing more than adding machines and intuition.
It was hardly a fair fight. Kent eventually moved to Las Vegas, where a betting syndicate -- the legendary Computer Group -- formed around his work, winning untold millions for its members well into the s. Kent continued to develop models and bet on sports up until seven years ago. He is now retired, according to his lawyer, his whereabouts closely guarded. Billy Walters, a core member of the Computer Group, has, however, stayed in the game; he now has a staff of consulting mathematicians who have built advanced predictive models to project scores.
Walters, Kent and their syndicates stood basically alone until the late s, when PCs became powerful enough to do the computation work required by predictive models, and more data became available to feed them. Voulgaris was well aware of these predecessors. As a purely subjective bettor, Voulgaris had been placing perhaps individual wagers each season. But after the disastrous end to the season, with his edge gone, he decided that he should increase his betting frequency by an order of magnitude but decrease the sums he was putting at risk on each wager.
It only made probabilistic sense. If his return on investment ROI fell from 20 percent to, say, 5 percent, that was okay. This new approach would require an enormous amount of research and analysis. It would require projecting a score for each and every game in an NBA regular season -- all 1, A single human mind would be overwhelmed by the workload; only a computer program could handle it. Voulgaris chose the right moment to start building a predictive model for NBA games.
Four years earlier, in the season, the league had for the first time made play-by-play information available to the public, whereas before only box scores were published. This trove of fresh information had no immediate practical value, except perhaps to assuage fan curiosity. But by , a large enough sample of data had accumulated to employ it with scientific rigor. To help him build his model, Voulgaris required a specialist in the field, a mind trained in the codes of statistics, mathematics and computer science.
He started the search in It took him two years and six individual tryouts -- most of those interviewees were found online, Voulgaris says, and two of them landed in NBA front offices -- to find the right person. The right person was a literal math prodigy. As a preteen, he had won national math contests; he had been the subject of awestruck articles in major newspapers.
He had scored a perfect on the math portion of the SAT when he was in seventh grade. At the time of his interview with Voulgaris, he had just quit a high-paying job designing algorithms for an East Coast hedge fund with a roster of Nobel-grade quant talent. The relationship got off to a rocky start.
To do so, they would have to break the game down into its basic unit, the possession. Each simulation would therefore be a series of mini-simulations. First, the program would have to predict the number of possessions each matchup would likely produce. Then it would need to judge the likeliest outcome of each possession: Score or no score; one point, two points or three; micro-forecasts ascertained from historical performance data.
It would also have to take into account a vast number of potential occurrences, each missed shot or successful rebound creating the possibility of still other occurrences -- a garden of explosively forking paths, as if in parallel universes. The program would run tens of thousands of simulations for each matchup, discarding the most outlandish or improbable results. It would be a black box -- prophecy as output. Between the statistical analysis, the algorithms and the programming, it took two years to create their first model, version 1.
Voulgaris continued to bet subjectively, marking time until the model was ready. When they finished, they called it Ewing. At some point in the process of breaking the game down into its component parts, they realized that Ewing would also require a kind of feeder model, one that could forecast the lineups a team would most likely use each game and the minutes each player was likely to see on the court. They called that model Van Gundy. Van Gundy, in turn, required its own feeder tool, one that would track the overall roster patterns for each team, the trades, the draft picks, the midseason player-acquisition tendencies.
That database, less intricate than the other two, they at times jokingly referred to as Morey, as in Daryl Morey, the quant-minded GM of the Rockets. Ewing, Van Gundy, Morey. Player, coach, GM. The names of each corresponding, of course, to the job of each tool.
Every score the model spit out was higher than the average lines produced by the bookmakers -- the standard by which they would be judging themselves. The model, in other words, was recommending that Voulgaris bet the over in every single game. After weeks spent poring through code, Voulgaris finally caught the flaw. In more advanced versions of Ewing, they would jettison this primitive free throw method.
The key is to find those scraps that are more predictive than others. Each player has two values -- on offense and as a defender -- and those values are constantly changing. So Voulgaris and the Whiz created, for Ewing, an aging component. Further number-crunching revealed that different types of players, based on position and size, will reach their zeniths at different ages and on trajectories that are possible to predict.
Ewing now grasps the curve of the lifespan of the point guard, the shooting guard, the forwards, the center -- and predicts the downslope and expiration date of every NBA career. When Ewing went live with actual betting for the first time toward the end of the season, Voulgaris was not yet sold on its powers. For another, the model was performing unremarkably with their money on the line -- right above the break-even line.
So too has the frequency of his wagering. In a season, he now regularly puts down well over 1, individual bets. It might come as little surprise to learn that Voulgaris has intermittently dreamed of becoming the general manager of an NBA franchise.
If not maybe all. In pursuit of this, in Voulgaris broke one of the cardinal rules of the sharp sports bettor: He sought publicity, conducting interviews with gambling and NBA-centric blogs. As with everything Voulgaris does, it was a calculated move. He wanted to burnish his bona fides as a quantitative basketball expert. And it worked. Despite the fact that he was giving up a yearly income that he says would dwarf all but the highest-paid executive in the NBA -- who is Jerry West of Golden State, Voulgaris is quick to point out -- he stopped gambling and signed a contract during the season with one of the co-owners of an NBA franchise to consult on matters of player acquisition and roster assembly.
The owner, according to Voulgaris, made certain alluring pledges. The quant revolution in sports at large has brought these two worlds closer together than ever before, at least intellectually. Voulgaris spent five months working for the NBA franchise. He says he advised his co-owner client on several trades. The stats nerds have no chance of ever becoming general managers. During the NBA regular season, which he splits between any number of North American and international ports of call, he watches as many games as he can, clocking more than 80 hours a week.
He typically faces a wall against which rises a rack of Samsung flat-screens: a inch central TV flanked on both sides by vertical ranks of three inch screens, each showing a game. From here, he orchestrates his wagering: Ewing spits out a projected score and a number representing its level of confidence for each potential wager.
This is a lifestyle not exactly conducive to relationships: He partly attributes his recent breakup with a girlfriend of five years to his odd hours during the season. Despite it all, Voulgaris faces the same issue that all sharps face: the sustainability of his edge, no matter how sophisticated the model that produces it.
When he returned to gambling for the season, Voulgaris says Ewing clocked an ROI of more than 6 percent. Please try to keep all discussions under the daily threads. Selling of picks is not allowed here and will be removed by the moderators. Haralabos Voulgaris self. From his Wikipedia page :. Is there any evidence this is true? What edges did he have over these 3 coaches? And did anyone ever go back and check to see if it was true?
I just ask because this guy is thrown around as the "world's pre-eminent NBA gambler", a pretty enormous claim, all the time. What evidence out there is there that his story is true? He talked about how since Avery is such a micro-manager and control freak, he likes to control game flow by calling plays from the sideline nearly every possession.
Haralabos was killing betting second half unders in Nets game because Avery calls more plays during the second half of games, and by the time Deron Williams would look over at Avery to get the play there would already be seconds off the shot clock before they even got into their offense and went to their first option.
Here's his blog:. So he still clearly identifies patterns, but back in the day he was able to exploit them at a much higher rate. Also, it's pretty sick that he says he's reduced his average bet size in favor of more volume. I can't even imagine what his old bet sizing used to be because it's pretty obvious when he bets a total as lines tend to move like points within an hour around the same time each day. Just one example, but pretty clearly there was no "edge" there when Avery Johnson was coaching the Nets.
I mean, it was a joke, it was so easy. He's not gonna go into any further detail than that guy's really quiet about that kinda stuff. He's not really quiet about it at all? He's constantly giving interviews about being a betting expert.
He gives precisely 0 examples in that 1 sentence you quoted. I read the article; I'm curious if there are more details out there about it. His edge has likely lessened, but there is no doubt that he bet professionally on basketball, and that at one point he did very well. Except he's been running around bragging about it for half a decade. When even modest winners get limited at most casinos and online sportsbooks, and he's such an enormous winner, it's interesting that he's decided to run around telling everyone about how great he is at gambling.
Not all sportsbook limits He doesn't live in the US, so wtf does he care if he gets limited at Vegas books? He's got Asia You could check out the panel he did at a conference with a guy from Cantor. It's pretty obvious that Cantor don't want his bets. He's a winner. If he was a total fraud, people would have spoken up about it by now. They do with Blizerian, so why wouldn't they with Haralabob? I don't think he's a total fraud, I just think there might be more to the story, that's all, and I'm curious.
He's obviously not VegasDave. Yeah, he used to own part of a sportsbook, so there's more to the story than just him putting everything on Lakers to win the title back in whatever year it was. I believe the guy, he may be lieing. Dont know much about him but its possible he's doing this, its not impossible. There are things that I wont give out. Others I will that are very easy to figure out. The only way you can be profitable is pick up on trends.
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Five months later and his time in the NBA was over, resulting in Voulgaris returning to the betting arena after he felt a sense of exclusion by the co-owner of the franchise. His ROI was slowly decreasing year on year, meaning he would have to take an even higher volume approach to his betting, but he felt he was delaying the inevitable.
Even though Bob had the aspiration to own a basketball team, he took on the role of Director of Quantitative Research and Development for the Dallas Mavericks in Article 5: Card-counter Edward Thorp was nearly killed by a casino. Article 6: From the most feared sports bettor in the world to prison, Billy Walters. Article 7: Australian Zeljko Ranogajec who sent a betting exchange bankrupt. Article 8: Taking the emotion out of betting, the story of Jeff Ma.
Article Alan Woods , the master of quantitative betting. Want to read about some of our customers who are on their way to becoming professional sports bettors too? My Value Betting Journey from 1k to 2k. Matias Interview - from 5k to 20k. Jonas Gjelstad Documentary Series - from 10k to 1m. Bob made all of his sports betting fortunes from Basketball.
Losing a third of his bankroll in one month After five years of success, Bob hit the wall in when he went on a long run of losses, losing a third of his bankroll in one month. First Name. It will be a while before anyone should pass judgment on the Voulgaris hire. But if it works, it will surely become a trend in the NBA, not a one-off. Data is a driving force in modern sports strategy and analysis — and in the state-by-state fight over sports betting legalization.
Haralabos Voulgaris made his name and built his bankroll by applying his carefully curated data at the betting window. Sports betting is becoming an increasingly indispensable companion to sports. Sports Betting. Veteran sports bettor and poker player Haralobos Voulgaris has crossed over with an NBA front office job. Is this the start of a trend?
Eric Raskin Published: Oct 9, Share on facebook Facebook. Share on twitter Twitter. Share on email Email. Building a stack in stages Most in the gambling space knew of Voulgaris, a year-old from Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada, prior to this, but how and when individuals first heard of him could vary. Better than the book In his sports wagering career, Voulgaris developed a knack for staying ahead of the other experts. Data knows best Data is a driving force in modern sports strategy and analysis — and in the state-by-state fight over sports betting legalization.
Eric Raskin Eric is a veteran writer, editor, and podcaster in the sports and gaming industries. He was the editor-in-chief of the poker magazine All In for nearly a decade, is the author of the book The Moneymaker Effect, and has contributed to such outlets as ESPN. Contact Eric at eraskin usbets. Related Posts. State Guides. New Jersey.
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