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Yet, it's precisely because the morning line is so used by the majority of players, that we need to take it into account - whether out-of-whack or not. Large and attention-grabbing changes from the morning line should cause a player to quickly re-evaluate the race. Scratches need to be accounted for of course. Still, I always pay extra attention to a non-favorite that is dropping seriously from the morning line against a favorite that is taking heavy play and has also dropped from the ML and this regardless of scratches.
That's one type of odds change that should get your attention. There are other races where odds information should cause you to pass the race:. Obviously there was surprise betting action, but how do we take advantage of it? I don't recommend betting on horses that low in odds. Unless you can get some kind of value in the other pools - that would be a pass situation. Horses bet down to half their ML or more should be given a second look.
On-the-other-hand, I'm usually skeptical when a runner floats up to triple its ML or higher. I'd need it to have very positive signs for that horse that I'd already noticed in pre-race handicapping, and I'd like to see it in the post parade and warm-up before committing to a wager. Below are some recent examples of actual races grabbed at random from our data-base.
These races were all issued in the HRG Index, and a few of these odds-changes worked against the betting-rules choice in the Index. But the game is far too fluid for that. I would advise obtaining the best information you can get - then using your innate sensitivity to intuit when to play and when to stay on the sidelines- when to use the "rules" and when to break them. There is no truly viable horse system per se - that is, in the usually understood meaning of the term - i.
To hone your method - be on the lookout for the kinds of moves shown below. They occur with great regularity, and you should be ready to alter your thinking on the race - not always changing your bet - but be flexible. The opposite side of this coin is the "dead-on-the-board" horse. A horse that should be taking action, but isn't - throws up warning flags for you.
Think, "Is there a weak favorite - a bandwagon type that is taking far more money than it should? Yet - keep the "triple-overlay" guideline in mind. If a horse has gone to triple its ML or more - I'd require the existence of very good pre-race reasons why I wanted to wager the horse before following through with my bet as long as one of the above two situations didn't exist. Remember, if you're not at the track with the skills to look at a horse's legs and overall demeanor before qualifying it for a race - that horse could have shown up half-lame and still be allowed to run.
It could be giving off all sorts of "tells" that savvy players at the track have picked up on. If they are shunning him at the windows, you should be ready to take your cue from their more-informed opinion - as reflected on the tote board. Keeping all this in mind - below are a few examples of this kind of pattern:.
Next, you will need to carry out the following calculations on the prices of the live contenders you have selected - I have tabulated an example to make the explanation easier. The example shows a list of selected 'live contenders' in a race, together with the best early prices available for each:. We can see that, by staking the calculated amounts to win on each of our live contenders at the best early prices we can find, we are certain of securing a We are confident of the outcome because we consider the runners we have eliminated to have no chance of winning.
Obviously you cannot use the technique if the sum of your percentages is more than However, should you decide to eliminate a well-fancied favourite from your calculations, or your list of live contenders is very short, the potential profit can be significant. The technique can be used in a live betting market once you become so familiar with the calculations that you are able to make them very quickly.
Category Question Answer Scoring Score Has your horse won or placed in a race of this Won 3 class or above in the last 12 months? Neither 0 Won 3 here Won on Has your horse won or placed on this course or similar 2 one with similar characteristics in the last 12 Placed Course months? Placed on 1 similar Neither 0 Won 3 Has your horse won or placed over today's Distance Placed 1 distance in the last 12 months?
Neither 0 Has your horse finished within half a length Yes 2 Recent per furlong of the winner in either of its last Form two runs? Won 2 Has your horse won or placed on today's going Going Placed 1 in the last 12 months? Neither 0 Does it look like your horse will be Yes 0 Draw inconvenienced by the draw in today's race?
No 1 Yes 1 Fitness Has your horse run within the last 50 days? No 1 Has today's jockey won or placed on your Yes 1 Jockey horse before? No 0 Has the trainer had 3 horses placed in the last Yes 1 Trainer 14 days? No 0 When you have calculated the score for your horse, multiply by 5 to get a rating out of A horse rating must have an outstanding chance of winning today. Without being over-scientific, if the rating is not over 50, a bet would look risky. It is also a good idea to rate the other leading contenders in the race to see how your selection compares.
This is by no means a definitive method, but it will help highlight the areas of study on which to concentrate. With a little practice, you will be able to look at a horse's form and know instinctively if it is a good bet. Top Ten Betting Mistakes The first step to formulating a solution is to define the problem.
The following points are areas of betting where many punters often get it wrong. My views arise from long personal experience and years of communication with succesful and unsuccesful punters alike. My aim here is to highlight these common areas of failure in the hope that I can speed up your learning curve towards succesful betting.
Read the following thoughts and you may be able to side step many of the pot holes others have fallen into in the past. Whatever method or system you are using, whoever you are following or subscribing to or however your own bets are calculated, you are better off with a "Betting Bank" that has built -in advantages that can help you.
It needs to be independent from your own personal finances and needs to be protected from factors that can threaten it. This can take a lot of emotion out of the decision making process. Emotion is a factor that threatens all punters. The size of your betting bank will of course be dependant upon your own individual circumstances and free capital available. An analogy to the world of shares perhaps may be that no financial advisor worth his salt would advise you throw all your capital into the stock market alone.
The vast majority of punters fail to use any form of set aside bank. They bet randomly with what ever money they have in their pocket at the end of the week or go in too deep with stakes far in excess of their personal safety levels. A punter with a professional attitude will set aside what he can comfortably afford to invest and then determine the best use he can make of that fixed sum of capital.
You do not have an endless pool of resources to dip into. Betting by its nature carries inherent risks. These risks include periods of low strike rates and long losing runs. Your betting bank and staking should be adapted for the method you use. You must in advance, prepare yourself for the possibility of a worse than average sequence of losers through adoption of a.
Correct methodical staking in addition to the mathematical advantage, can also help overcome the risk of emotional reaction to a sequence of unusually positive or negative results. Take the Pricewise column in the racing post as an example. Long term if you could get on at the advised prices, it would have returned a decent profit overall. During this time however followers would have to have endured runs of up to 40 losers in a row! Despite the overall long term profit I suspect the vast majority of Pricewise followers would have been terminated either by a failure to set aside a sufficient amount of points or through failure to cope with the emotion of the losing run.
We feel able to protect clients banks as long losing runs haven't happened and the strike rate and odds have been more than enough to ensure long steady and safe growth for your betting profits. That is in essence the key to winning money. Manage your accounts in a way that protects them as far as possible from the element of risk that the game presents you.
Chasing losses is a game for the illinformed who do not want to make the effort to seek value in their bets. Bookmakers have to price up every race. Punters don't have to play in every race, they can pick the races they want to bet in ,and that is the main edge that people fail to understand.
If you have had a losing day, by attempting to chasing your losses you give up that advantage and bet in the races that you should not be betting in. You are therefore betting the way bookmakers want you to and not in the way to win. Many punters will alter their stakes in the last race either to "chase" losses or "play up" winnings.
Its no coincidence that the bookmakers have ensured that the last race on each day is often a handicap or one of the hardest races that day. There will be more racing the next day and the day after that. The secret is waiting for opportunities and only betting when you know you havecircumstances which favour you and not the bookmakers. You must never change your approach, or deviate from sensible staking as there is no such things as "The Last Race".
To profit over a long series of bets you must be betting at odds greater than the true chance of winning your selection have. To do this however over the long term, you need to concentrate on each race individually and seek the value bet in that race. There is value to be had in every race. The key to it is understanding where that value is. Many times a punter will screw up a losing betting slip and say "At least I had some value".
There is absolutely NO relationship between value and prices. It does not follow that the bigger the price you take the better "value" you have. The value is sometimes clear but more often well hidden and it takes a trained eye to see that. Everyone has this "Foresight" on occasions, it is a game about opinions after all and nobody is always right or wrong. Value can be the most expensive word in racing if you can't bet winner.
The old cliche is that value is about betting a horse whose true chance is better than its price reflects. That's only a small part of it. You also have to make sure that you bet in the right way and in the right races as that is the only way you can keep strike rates high and protect a betting bank.
You should continually strive to increase value in your bets. Once you have a selection you feel is value do not just take the first acceptable price that comes along. Seek to improve it by shopping around the various bookmakers or try and top the best bookmakers price by looking to the betting exchanges.
Marginal improvements on odds on each bet you make can have a dramatic effect on long term profits. Bookmakers play on your natural desire and go out of their way to encourage you to bet exotic multiple selection bets that can in one hit, turn a small stake into a large sum. Professionals however rarely bet in multiples. Most professionals bet singles and steer away from the multiple bets.
Bookmakers relentlessly promote a host of multiple bets with exotic names such as Yankee, Lucky 15, andGoliath. The reason they are heavily touted is the profit margin in the bookmaker's favour increases the more selections you add to your multiple bet.
If you bet this as a single the bookmaker may have a theoretical edge in his favor of. Yes your win double can produce a much bigger win from the same stake however over the long term the bookmaker is eating away at your capital at a much faster rate. It is a waste of time debating which type of multiple bet is 'best'.
Unless your prediction skills are supernatural or you are incredibly lucky, then betting in singles is more often the best option. You may say that many "Pros," do bet in multiples in bets like The Scoop 6 or the Jackpot, but that's only because they know there is plenty of "Dead" money in any given Pool and they are betting against people who don't understand the dynamics of those types of bet. There are times you should bet in multiples but in truth they are few and far between.
You can't approach this as a "Get Rich Quick " scheme. It is a long slow process of serious and sustained profit and not a game for Get Rich Quick schemers. If you go Into any Betting shop, have a look at all the posters on the wall offering "special offers", "enhanced terms " and "bonus offers".
You will see they are all multiple bets. Bookmakers want you betting in multiples and it is easy to see why. They carve most profit from them. You never see a Bookmakers promotion offering extra's on a win or each way single. Ask yourself why. Bookmakers know that. That's why in every betting office you can bet on numbers, lotteries, ball games, racing from all over the globe with horses nobody has heard of before and even now computer animated, or as they call it, virtual racing.
Bookmakers just believe that its a case of punters sitting all day betting on what ever is put in front of them and sadly they are right in many cases. They are simply thrill seeking and don't care what they bet on, as long as they can bet. There is no methodology at all and many betting office regulars are simply a bunch of headless chickens prepared to pay long term for the warming buzz of the occasional win.
Even more experienced regular gamblers who are savvy enough to turn down bets that they know are stupid always let themselves down by continually bleeding their profits with a fun tenner here and a fun tenner there. It takes great discipline to NOT bet at times. It takes discipline to walk away from a horse when the price isn't right. It takes discipline to say no to that small fun bet.
It takes discipline to keep your money in your pocket and deny yourself the emotional buzz of watching your runner. Punters come in all shapes and sizes. Even the shrewder punters who could win at the game, fall into the trap of lack of discipline of study. After a winning period they forget that what made them winners in the first place, was the effort they put in.
They fall victim to over confidence, laziness and indiscipline. Being a long term successful punter is like swimming against the tide. It takes an effort to stay still, even greater effort to move ahead and as soon as you relax or slack off you start to go backwards. Betting is a lonely game. Its also a highly skilled game. Emotion undermines success in many ways. There is comfort in knowing that as a sheep when you are wrong it is not your fault as you were simply doing what everyone else was doing.
With betting, the laws of market supply and demand, dictate that long term, the sheep will get fleeced. Emotion neutralises discipline and long proven successful practices. The result of any isolated race has little or no relation to races just before that or just after that.
Races should be viewed in isolation from each other. We are all emotional in betting but the players at the top of the tree have this down to a fine art and can control those emotions. They have an in built psychological factor that makes them feel like losers and they have been conditioned to losing by years of doing so.
Examples of emotive gambling include punters following a horse ,trainer or a jockey blind. The "Hype" horses are cannon fodder for emotional punters. They may also follow tipsters blind as they "hate" the thought of missing out on a winner.
They pay no attention to the changing conditions of a race that may follow non runners or the ground changing. They missunderstand confidence and can't cope with a lack of confidence. Emotion also prevents people from advanced betting subjects such laying , hedging and arbitrages. Emotion forces some punters to bet horses with certain names that remind them. Names such as "Long Tall Sally " and "Susan's Pride " attract many to them just for a name that's relevant to them. Most punters have a grudge against their own money and winning and being successful is alien to them.
Emotional punters lose their heads in barren times and fail to capitalise on winning runs. They mess about with systems and staking plans that make no sense. The moreemotion you can rule out of your betting , the more successful you will become. You have to view everyone in the game as your enemy and as people trying to take your hard earned money away from you in the same way as you would a pickpocket. Once you can master your emotions you have made the first big step to betting profitably.
The grass is rarely Greener on the Other Side. The truth is that the grassthat isn't working for you has not been grown, cultivated or looked after properly. Many punters change approaches and methods so quickly that they don't give any method a true test. If they find a system that works they don't continue after a few bad results. It is the same as gamblers who write down every bet they have. Once they have a few losers they often lose the heart to do this and stop doing so and move on to another area.
They are like children with new toys at Christmas. They never stay with any method long enough to prosper. They always feel the" Grass is Greener" , when in truth the "Grass" they are using has been abused and left to deteriorate. They want the next Big "new idea " or "method " and that doesn't work either as the fault lies not in the Grass, but the Gardener. They have no long term consistency in their betting and are constantly tinkering with what wasn't broke or moving on in search of the holy grail before a full evaluation of what they are currently examining has been completed.
A competition to win best garden will be won by the person who can spend most time in the garden and master its challenges, the gardener who is prepared to care about his garden and invest in the tools that will help his garden grow and keep the weeds at bay. It's the same with betting. You will do far better long term if you can make a concentrated effort of learning and research in one key area rather than flitting from this to that. Most punters are LAZY!
They have religiously followed a doctrine of poor planning and lack of research. They refuse to study and spend hours looking at how they can win at betting. They refuse to invest in the game and invest in their own learning. You cant refuse to spend money, just look at the racing for 30 minutes and expect to win long term. You simply can't get away with that in the hardest trade of all , Winning Money at Beting.
If it was that easy , then millions would do it. You must either invest in your betting , or pay someone to do just that. Natural human tendency is to try and get away with the least amount of effort. Lazy punters are cannon fodder for the bookmakers. They make little or no effort in their selection process nor make an effort to extract maximum returns from their bets. Those who put the most work in are the more likely to succeed.
My philosophy is simple. I believe that if a bookmaker, journalist or odds compiler spends 3 hours on a race then I'll spend 6 hours on that race to gain the edge. That is true about both golf and betting. Most people can't spend 12 hours a day studying betting as they have families, jobs, commitments and lead their own lives. That is what you pay us for. We do that study for you and re-invest money in our betting so that we can find every edge possible to Help You Win.
Amazingly most punters fail to learn from their mistakes. They continue for years making the same basic errors time and time again. Pure stupidity. Strive to improve your betting performance by continually learning from the mistakes and weakness is your game. Your bookmaker may have been laughing at you for years.
You have it in your power however to improve your betting and hopefully wipe that smile from his face for good. Remember: these systems are offered with no guarantees. Test them yourself by 'paper trading' without real stakes before risking any money.
Pick out of the remainder those that have been out at least twice during the current campaign and have been placed in the first four in both those races. From those qualifying so far eliminate those not in the first four in the Racing Post betting forecast. Races must consist of between 5 and 12 runners inclusive. No amateur jockeys or apprentices claiming the full 7lbs. Selections can be found very quickly once familiar with the rules. Any daily newspaper may be used but the most reliable betting forecast is to be found in the daily "Racing Post".
Handicap races We will look at Handicap races which are more open than other kinds of races and where winners and placed horses tend to start at bigger odds. A survey over a three-year period demonstrated that class counts in racing and that in flat handicaps horses near the top of the handicap hold the best chance of winning. Form As for form without which no system can hope to succeed many horses with sound form in recent runs do perform well even though the market might give them only a slender chance of success.
Any horse good enough to reach the first four in each of its last three races must have some chance of reaching a place again and may even win, despite what chance the odds compilers or the Bookmakers give them. Long term profits come from bets that provide value. Finding Value Bets. This is done by applying a sliding scale based on the Dynamic Staking Plan Software to number of runners in a race.
Improve your returns for any back-to- win betting method. Staking Plan Handicaps of ten or less runners are Software ignored as are races of 17 or over. Then pick out any horses that have run third or fourth in each of their last three outings, which figured in the above specified weight range and they are your selections.
Some days you will have more than one possibility and if you prefer to just back one horse each day then select the one with the biggest forecast odds preferably from The Racing Post. The method eliminates all races of a highly competitive nature and selects only those horses that have good recent form and the ability to repeat it.
The method uses "The Sporting Life" although you needn't buy the paper if you don't want to because all the relevant information is on the pages placed on the walls of all betting shops. Here then, is the method:. Select all non-handicap races with fields of up to and including 12 declared runners. Eliminate Amateur, Apprentice and Ladies races.
Check any horse that won last time out to see if it is tipped by "Form" of "The Sporting Life" and if it is, then that a selection provided it is forecast at odds against in the betting forecast not odds on or evens. You will find Form's tips for each race in the box at the top of the page near the race card.
When placing your bet write, "Odds on or evens, no bet" on your slip and this will automatically eliminate odds on and evens bets and ensure all your selections are priced at odds against. I advise you to use either the "Daily Mirror" or the "Daily Express". The same rules apply except instead of using "Form" of the Life, the black spot form horse is used instead. Both these papers have a spot form rating and both have proved to be profitable with the method.
Ten golden rules of successful betting 1 Never bet more than you can afford to lose. That should be blindingly obvious - but sadly too many amateur punters just take a risk, hoping that this one will be the big win they need. The only way to stand a chance of winning over the long term is to have a consistent plan and to use a dedicated betting bank that contains no more money than you would be prepared to lose entirely in the worst of circumstances.
Once you start staking amounts you can't afford to lose your judgement will inevitably be affected. Also, there's no thrill in putting your financeal future, or even your family's financial future on the line. Decide on the maximum wager you feel comfortable with.
It doesn't mean you have to be happy to lose it. Just that you can afford to lose it if the worst should happen. Otherwise your betting will go nowhere. No matter how big a cert something looks, never bet your last penny on it. Scientists only talk in probabilities. It is regarded as highly unlikely that the moon will crash into the earth tomorrow - but it is not impossible. The odds of winning the UK national lottery are 14,, to one - but almost every week someone wins it.
However much you may feel you are on to "a good thing", only ever commit a small proportion of your available funds to it. When things go wrong - as sometimes they WILL then you will live to fight another day. There is more than one way to win in betting. An approach that works for one punter may not work for another. Experiment to find the approaches that work for your betting and then spend enough time with them to let them work over time.
At the same time, however, do not close you mind to other possibilities. There are many approaches you can study to back, lay, trade, arbitrage, bet in running, use software to enhance trading or staking. Among the free systems we'll send you. You can start to build up a picture of the bets that work for you and those that don't. Without keeping records you are shooting in the dark.
Of course it's tough to have to write down those painful losing bets when you'd prefer to forget them, but if you want to make a long-term success of betting you need a record of your failures as well as your successes. If you can use a spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel or similar then that can help you to easily analyse profitable statistics.
If not then at the very least a dedicated paper notebook should be there to do the job. Betting on situations when you have an emotional envolvement is to be avoided at all costs. It should be obvious, but never bet on your favourite soccer team just because you are desperate to see them win. Not just what you think is the likelihood of a win. The most successful punters have no emotional involvement in the outcome of a sport.
If you want to watch a race or a match for the enjoyment of the game then do that without betting on it. It also means you won't have the possibility of a double disappointment if your favourite team loses and you also lose a bet. If everyone else knows what you know then you can be sure the prices for your "sure bet" will be at their lowest.
You may make a modest profit this time but betting this way over the longer period will never bring you a consistent profit. Look for horse races or other bets where you think the odds on offer are more than they should be for the true likelihood of winning - call these "Value Horses" - and you'll have profits to be proud of over the longer term.
As I said in part 1, there is no such thing as a certainty. So you need to make sure you are not thrown by turnarounds you were not expecting. If you are following a really good race horse that gives you great expectations and he meets an unexpected defeat, don't let that one event put you off backing him in the future.
Week in week out, favourites that have been beaten last time out come home on their next outing. It infuriates punters, but they only have themselves to blame. Take time to analyse an unexpected defeat and you may well see that a good opportunity is still just around the corner whilst the less wise majority have given up on him. However, there are opportunities when you can see that others are doing exactly that.
In times when everyone is looking for instant gratification there are plenty of times where punters are too easily deceived by a single good performance. Often the press will start writing up the chances of a two year old racehorse for the following year's Derby or Guineas after only one or two good performances.
So punters will then start backing ante-post on emotion only. On race day however, you may well find better value with other runners. On soccer, London teams are often at shorter prices than the should be simply because so many of the country's fans live in the capital and will emotionally back their home sides. You can profit from the folly of others. Get a strategy and stick to it. Don't bet on whims. That doesn't mean you should be inflexible but do bet in a structured way. If you place small bets for fun on weekdays then at least try to take your weekend bets as a serious business with heavier wagers.
Better still 'though, cut out the "fun" bets altogether. Ultimately there's far more fun in consistently winning than haphazardly losing. To put it another way - just know when to STOP. Keep a check on yourself and always try to be honest if you ever feel that betting is running away with you.
A long losing run tells you you should change your system. If you've followed the other rules 'though you won't gave got into a situation where you are painfully losing money. Be prepared to stop and take stock. Betting should be a pleasure - but not an adrenaline rush. If you ever feel you need help to get back in control, take it sooner or later. This system is based on a very rational criterion, it produces quite a few selections and a good strike rate. This system relies on the fact that certain professional form readers are quite good at their jobs.
When they are all in agreement on the chances of a horse winning it stands to reason that the horse has a pretty good chance. With a few filters to remove any unwanted strokes of poor luck this system has been fine tuned to provide good quality horses at reasonable prices that win often enough to provide a good turnover and return on investment. Paper trade for a while and see how you get on with it. Eliminate any Chases. No All weather meetings 3. Locate the Racing Post Selection Box this is the matrix where there is a roundup of the days tips by all the press tipsters 6.
Look for Topspeed, Postdata, Spotlight and Postmark. If ALL 4 of these are in agreement then you have a noted possible. You now need to check the training centres. Newmarket B. Lambourne C. The South D. The North E. West Country. This system is based on a very radical criterion, it produces selections with a good strike rate and high returns. This System relies on the fact that certain professional race readers are quite good at their jobs.
This time we are relying on the skills of the Daily Mirrors race reader s who predict if a horse is fancied Indicated by an F next to a horses name or a strongly fancied Indicated by an SF next to a horses name. With a few filters to remove any unwanted strokes of poor luck this system has been fine tuned to provide good quality horses at high prices that win or are placed often enough to provide a good turnover and return on investment.
We think you will be surprised! Select only National Hunt flat Races 2. Highlight the horses that are indicated as F or SF in the above races. Are either or both of these horses unexposed? This means that there are no form figures at all next to the horses names. If there are no form figures then that horse is a selection. If both horses in one race qualify then back both. The Market System Remember: these systems are offered with no guarantees.
Although the draw, the going, the jockey and many other points have all to be taken into the reckoning when making those all important. Going through the cards, pick out the selling races and if there is National Hunt racing pick the novice hurdle races as well. Watching the market moves in these races, back any horse that contracts from its opening show by the number of points shown on the right of the table below. To take advantage of these market moves, you need to be either in the betting shop or watching Teletext with your phone handy.
That way you will have all the shows from all the meetings at your fingertips, it is not so easy at the Racecourse. Rules: Bet any horse that is competing for less prize money than on its previous run, provided that it was a favourite or joint-favourite on that previous outing. Lower prize money takes into account prize money for the winner only. Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier. System applies to UK races only. Logic: Lower prize money normally indicates a lower graded or lesser quality race.
If a horse attracted enough support to warrant favouritism in a better event, then it should have strong claims against lesser opposition. This set of circumstances often indicates a retrieval mission, with connections attempting to recoup previous losses. An easier task is often chosen for the horse when this is the case.
The Flynn Points Method Remember: these systems are offered with no guarantees. This method uses tables of "points" to quickly asses and compare the winning chances of horses in different races. It is not so much a complete system in itself but offers a very useful quick check when you are comparing chances of two or more candidates thrown up by other horse racing systems and selection methods.
It is common knowledge that favourites win a higher percentage of non-handicaps than handicaps. Also winners last time out win a higher percentage of races than those who finished second or third, etc.. Taking these facts as our basis the following tables can be used in different kinds of horse races for a quick assessment. In this example, a horse in a Handicap race which is fourth in the betting and ran second last time out would get five points.
Here, a horse in a non-handicap race which is favourite and ran third last time out would get seven points. Some Tricks of the Trade Remember: these systems are offered with no guarantees. What do you think the result would be if a child of say 7 years old were to run a metre race against a 15 year old?
I think the older child would win, don't you? Well although horses have a shorter life span, just a few months difference in age can make a big difference to strength and ability when they start racing. Now in our part of the world every racehorse is considered to have its birthday on the first of January, regardless of when it was actually foaled. So a horse born on 30th Jan is considered to be a two year old at the same time as one born on May 1st. That three month difference in real age 'though can make a big difference in strength and ability.
You can generally find this information in the Racing Post and Sporting Life. Now generally breeders aim to get their foals all born around the same time, but sometimes you will find races where some runners are three or four months older than their competitors. By itself that doesn't guarantee a win but add the info to your selection method and the extra age and strength can make a significant difference, expecially when the going is extra soft or heavy.
Why do you think that phrase is in the common language? It's simply because it's well know in the racing fraternity that certain racehorses just love certain courses. No one quite knows why a horse may feel at home more on a particular track but it happens frequently. The more unusual tracks, e. Brighton, particularly tend to have their specialists. When a horse runs at its favourite track it often takes on a second life. If you take the time to familiarise yourself with the horses that love one track rather than another, the rewards are there for the taking.
This is only a consideration for flat racing because there are no stalls used with the jumps. It is proven to be possible to get an edge by studying the tendency that particular starting stalls may have on the winner at individual race tracks. Just because there is a particular bias at one course doesn't mean it will be repeated elsewhere.
You have to make your own statistics. However such study can bear fruit. For example, in the late eighties shrewd punters noticed that at Thirsk, in sprint races of five or six furlongs on soft going, when the stalls were placed on the stands side it was only the horses drawn with the very highest numbers that would be competing at the finishing post. Maybe that was a very specific set of circumstances but, when they occurred, those in the know took full advantage.
One guy in particular managed to twice win over , by forecasting the first three horses home in the correct order when these conditions arose. He did it by betting on a range of permutations of the highest drawn horses, then sat back and let fate deliver the goods.
Again there is no point in waiting until a stable's success rate is common knowledge. You have to spot the emerging trend early and hook into it from the start. That may not sound easy, but here's a strategy to give you a good chance:. Write out a list of the top 20 or 30 trainers that you'll find from the Racing Post, then award them points for each winner, second third or fourth they run on a daily basis.
Total up the results each day and you'll soon be able to spot emerging trends from individual trainers. Look for horses that finished in the money, that is first, second or third at their last four starts in their current campaign. Try a horse whose last run was on the same track as today unless it is shipped from a major track Belmont, Churchill, Santa Anita to a minor track Penn National, Turf Paradise, Mountaineer. This little method will give you a few good horses to check out and regularly comes up with some good winners.
If a horse was a favourite or low odds or less in its last race and today is over in the same type race or lesser, take a shot! This method can return some big longshots. Don't bet on a horse that won at longshot odds its last race and is running at favouritism or low odds today.
If you weren't there for the wedding why go to the funeral? If this is the case, look instead for a horse with a low morning lines or less and is going to post over odds. Look for a horse that is a proven a winner at either the track or distance. Or box the top 3 money- earners at either the track or distance. This is a powerful handicapping tool that's simple to use when betting horses. If a horse is a heavy favourite due to a big class drop or favourable distance change, look for another horse that is doing the same exact thing only being ignored at higher odds - this little gem can really make your day at the race track.
Never play more than 2 race tracks at a time. It's so tempting with Satellite simulating but unless you want to blow through your money in about 30 minutes, don't do it. Have a goal in mind. If you go to the track and say, I'd like to win 50 today, that's a goal.
But if you say, I only want to lose 50 that's a goal too. And your mind will make sure you achieve it. So what's better to have as a goal, reasonable winnings or tolerable losses? It's up to you. Look for threes. Anytime a horse is doing something for a third time, that can be a very good thing. Keep your eye on it.
Backing one jockey may seem a bit of a long shot but good profits can be made by supporting a single jockey in the hope that one day they will ride a number of winners at any one meeting. Frankie Dettori famously rode seven winners in one unforgettable afternoon at Ascot.
Bookies across the country had their largest single afternoons losses. It is not uncommon for one jockey to ride a well-priced set of winners in one meeting. Many punters try the one jockey system but give up after just a few attempts.
Like every other system you have to stick with it. This system needs to be used during the turf flat horse-racing season. In a typical season there will be about 33 Saturdays from March to beginning of November and you would use the system on each Saturday. You have got to decide on your level of stake and only bet what you can comfortably afford to lose. Multiply your level of stake by the number of times you want to try this system out and put aside this sum as your betting bank.
Accepting that you may lose should take some of the pressure off operating this system. One big pay out would comfortably put your plan into profit. Each day look at the two main horse racing meetings of the day and select the top jockey riding there. Then take each of their first six mounts or however many they have and back them in a series of trebles, four, five and six timer accumulators. If the jockey has six mounts this will involve 42 bets. It sounds a lot but on small stakes the total outlay is not that large.
If you used 25pence as your base stake the bet will have cost you Two meetings are being used so the amount laid out on any one day will be This sounds a lot but even on days where your chosen jockey manages a treble your returns should cover a large portion of your bet and will hopefully exceed it! Top jockeys are selected because they usually have the best rides. Betting neednt be restricted to Saturdays but what must remain the same is using spare cash and using the system on a consistent basis.
There is no doubt that top jockeys often ride a few winners on the same day. Before you try using the system check the horse racing results for a few weeks and you will see the one jockey system can and does work! An added bonus is that any Daily newspaper which has a racing section can be used - you do not need to purchase one of the specialist racing papers.
Only using the form figures for the current season make a. If there is more than one selection, use the table below as an eliminator, with the figures at number one being the best, number two the next best and so on. If after this there is still more than one selection, take the lowest in the betting forecast, if they still cannot be separated take the one with the lowest Weight including penalties.
Some papers give extended form figures, 5,6, 7, etc. In National Hunt racing you will also see letters in the form figures, e. Your aim, on any given day, is to find four selections from four races. A Yankee is a special bet comprising of 6 doubles, 4 trebles and 1 fourfold, giving a total of 11 bets.
Suggested stake is lOp per bet, which means an outlay of 2. Your total outlay for this bet will therefore be a meagre 2. Profit Points System This one has 'mixed reviews' to say the least and I haven't tested it. See what you think. In this system you are not promised a winner in every race but it is designed to keep you ahead of the game over long periods of time.
This system even lets you know when not to part with your cash. Betting points are allocated for each race then the bets are placed according to the principal race meeting as printed in the Daily Mail. The reason the Daily Mail is used is because when the system was being tried the Mails racing information was accurate and consistent and presented in such a way that this system was easy to execute.
The amount of cash you bet is up to you with the possibility of each point being worth as little as 1. Calculating in points really only makes the system much easier to understand and makes working out your profits much easier! For the best results the Profit Points system must be followed exactly and used over a period of time for it to be profitable. Long term gambling profits are only possible if you follow a system to the letter and not place a bet on any horse that takes your fancy.
Like any system you may have the odd bad month and this is to be expected, however the system prevents against continuous losses and with patience your winning streak will return and you will be back in profit.
So, to make the system work you must first purchase a copy of the Daily Mail daily and look at the principal race meeting and note down only races with 8 or 9 runners. The principal meeting is the one with the highest prize money on offer. Other meetings can be used but statistics have shown that this is the best meeting to choose. If there are no principal meetings in any day then pick the one with the most prize money.
Always select the second named horse second favourite. If there are joint favourites still only select the second named horse. Now bet 1 point on your selected second favourite horse. Remember your point can be worth as much or as little as you like. Should you lose in the first race then increase your stakes by 1 point. Keep increasing your stakes until you have a winning race. If you have 6 consecutive losses then stop betting, this limits losses to 21 points in any one sequence and also safeguards against a long losing run.
If a winner doesnt arrive when you reach 6 consecutive losses then you must wait for 2 consecutive losing days as before and recommence with 1 point. To restart you subtract the starting price from the number of points on your winning bet. The starting price will need to be rounded up to the nearest whole figure. One of the men who has most made a study of Horse Racing Systems is Nick Mordin, racing journalist and writer.
From his studies he came up with this helpful summary of the features of a good race betting system. I've split up this advice onto different pages to make it more likely you will think carefully about each condition when considering the value of systems you are presented with. I don't have all the answers but I aim to give you a variety of views to help you make up your own mind. You can waste a great deal of time studying the form book simply to find rules that suggest a horse may be a likely winner.
Just because you pick a winner does not mean that betting will be profitable in the long term. If a great proportion of the betting public can also see that this is a winner then the odds you can obtain will be very low. Betting consistenly on horses whose chances of winning are greater than their bookmaker odds suggest will bring profits over the medium to longer term.
Only when you have found errors in the thinking of the market as a whole should you turn to the form book to see if you can profitably exploit this. If you remember that you are essentially betting against other punters both in a bookies and on betting exchanges then you should realise that if you bet on the same things that they do you cannot hope to succeed in the long term. For example only: - well bred horses win less often than poorly bred ones in low class races; horses win less often in first-time blinkers; etc The reaction of a common punter when you explain your system should not be "That's clever" but rather "That sounds like rubbish - I can't se that!
Only you should know different. It is difficult to base an esoteric system on information that is straight out of the Racing Post. This info is pinned up on the walls of every betting shop in the country and forms the basis of most punters' selection processes. Systems based on more difficult to come by information such as physical appearance, gallop reports, pedigree analysis and trainer patterns are more likely to bring results. Deciding if a bet is worth the risk. Do the maths make sense before you place your horse racing bet?
This is one of the first questions you should ask yourself before considering putting down your stake money. What we mean by this is - the odds offered by a bookmaker are never the "true" odds or probabilities of a horse winning. Who knows exactly what those figures should be? The figures in the odds are more indicative of what the market as a whole all the punters in the country and beyond believe is a horse's chance of winning. The figures are driven by market forces.
If more people want to back a horse because they think it will win then the bookmakers odds will shorten reduce. This is as true in the bookmakers' shop as it is on the betting exchanges. However, one factor you can be sure of is that whatever the odds offered about a particular horse, the bookmaker will "balance" his total book so that, over all, he is guaranteed a small profit from the race - or at least from the many races he takes bets on that day.
All professional gambling bodies do this. Bookmakers, casinos, bingo halls, the National Lottery, etc. This is his expected profit margin. So, as your objective should be to try to consistently tip the odds further in your favour, you should be looking out for bets where in the race as a whole the over round is on the low side, i. Firstly, express all the odds of the race in European 'digital' format.
So for example "evens" is 2. To transform fractional odds to digital, divide the first figure by the second and add one - so 6 - 4 becomes 1. Then divide each digital odds price into to give you the percentage figure for each horse. Horse 1 1. If you find, by using a good selection method, a horse in this race with a good chance of winning then you are more likely to get good value from this bet than in the typical bookmaker race.
It is Guaranteed because we are able to back the selection to win at one price in the early morning and then lay it to lose at a shorter price nearer to the start of the race. So, whether the selection wins or loses, you have a guaranteed profit. Heres how it works In the racing post every Saturday find the Pricewise feature and look for his main selection of the day. Because Pricewise is so popular, the price on offer in the early morning is almost certain to get shorter Particularly if the selection is featured on Channel 4s Morning Line.
You need to ensure that you can get your bets on at the right level of staking to guarantee a profit. Probably the best-known and most used Betting Exchange is Betfair. They will take a small commission from your winnings but you are guaranteed to make a profit if you follow the system. In order to get the biggest price possible for your win bet you will need to find out the information required as early as possible. This means acquiring a copy of the racing post bright and early on Saturday morning or you can go onto the Racing Post website to access the information that may be available on Friday evening to give you a head start.
The earlier you place your win bet the bigger the price you will obtain which makes laying it off at a shorter price easier. If the main selection is a shorter single figure price bear in mind that it may not drift in that much and your potential profit may not be too large. In this case you may not wish to play on that particular day, although a guaranteed profit is still a profit! The Best horses to back and then lay are obviously those that open up at a big price.
This especially the case if they are featured on Channel 4s Morning Line at 8am on Saturday mornings. The interest generated by Channel 4 will virtually guarantee the price of the Pricewise selection will shorten dramatically. You could also operate the system on these weekdays but Saturday is normally the biggest betting day so the price of the selections are more likely to tumble throughout the morning to give you the best laying opportunities.
It is recommended that you paper trade this system for a few weeks to start with, to get the feel of how it works before betting. Start with small stakes to begin with until you feel confident about how the betting exchanges work. You will soon see for yourself that a guaranteed profit is possible every week. Picking just one winner in a race can be a nightmare. You can do everything right, you can find the best horse in the field and you just know it should cross the line.
Then something goes wrong. The horse falls, it gets bunched in on the rails, it just wasn't feeling right on the day - or the dark horse, outsider comes though and pips it at the post. Among our methods I like to consider ways to insure my bets. It may mean I don't always pick up so much on the outright winners, but I certainly never lose as often as I would without these kind of insurances.
In this simple method, I use "saver" bets to cover my chosen winner. In future methods I'll show you some more sophisticated ideas, but this one is effective and easy to apply with just a little extra calculation. However, there are 10 other runners and behind him there are just two that I think could be some competition.
The rest of the field I believe to be no competition for these top three. Here's the calculation:. To do this, divide the first figure by the second and add 1. The is the amount I'll stake on this horse. This is my stake on the second horse and will guaratee my full returned stake if it should win. This final figure of 6. So, if my champion wins I get However, if either of the others should win I get back the full amount of my stake and no loss. Although not widely known, this is an excellent and devious way to exploit a betting loophole to come closer to guaranteeing your profit.
Here we are betting on two horses in different races. How you choose the two horses is up to you and should be based on some reasonably reliable system or form study.
This wagering pot is then divided up into points, and determines how much you have to stake on each bet. Managing your investment judiciously is critical to sustained profits, as even a winning bet can end up losing money in the long run by choosing an unprofitable wager. The most successful bettors are known as professional handicappers , and they work to find the most profitable bets while minimizing their losses on unlikely wagers. Handicapping horse races begins with an examination of the various factors that go into winning a race, which allows a calculation of the appropriate amount to place on a bet.
This calculation starts with , or all of your staking pot, but horse racing tracks typically collect a portion of all wagers placed on the day to cover track expenses. Next, the 80 can be divided by the size of the field to show how much each factor will determine the winner of the race. For example, an event with an 8-horse field would render an equation of 80 divided by 8, equaling Horse racing is known for its exciting and unpredictable finishes , but the vast majority of horse races can be narrowed down to a few true contenders long before the starting gun by considering the abilities of each horse.
The horse with the highest winnings per start average is the class of the field and receives a unit. The next most important factor is consistency, which is determined by dividing the number of starts by the wins accumulated over the year. Speed ratings are commonly used to measure the capabilities of horses, but where they are unavailable the horse with the fastest time on the surface of the day and at the current race distance receives the unit.
These are special deals that will give you a refund if a certain event occurs. This refund will typically be in the form of a free bet that you get awarded for future use. The outcome that triggers this refund can be that your horse comes second, a high odds runner wins or a number of other different situations. This sort of offer in itself gives you a slightly better chance of coming out ahead but you still need to do some work in order to choose your exact bet wisely.
To get started, you will find that Saturday afternoon televised races often feature more refund opportunities than any other time of week. The majority of the big bookmakers have this kind of deal. Once you have identified a refund offer that looks worth betting on then the next step is to work out whether you can lower your risk by finding a way of minimising the qualifying loss.
For instance, you should be looking for runners that have closely matched odds with both the bookie and the exchange. Yet, it can be extremely productive if you get it right. Find out more about horse racing refunds here. Among the most popular horse racing systems that you have heard of it is likely that you are aware of horse racing tips. These are suggestions that are handed out to punters by professional tipsters with strong track records. They may base their tips on inside knowledge or simply on having a long, successful career in identifying the best bets in any particular race.
Of course, it is also worth pointing out that there are some scams in this industry for you to be aware of and avoid. Ideally, you will use a trial period offer to give one of these sites a try before you give them any of your money for a subscription. Some of these services are also free to join up to, although you should still be aware of the dangers of giving your email address to a scamming site.
If you start to use a good, reliable horse racing tips service then it should turn out to be a very profitable move. Even if you are paying out for the tips you receive then you will still end up in the black if you get solid advice and act on it.
Generally speaking, once you sign up for one of these services then you will receive daily tips sent to your email inbox. A couple of the reputable sites that are worth giving a try are Betting Gods and Betfan. While we have looked at fairly easy horse racing systems so far, there are also more advanced strategies that you might be interested in trying out too. A good example of this comes with the way that the Betfair horse betting exchange allows you to trade.
There are a number of different ways of doing this to try and ensure a healthy win. An example of when this could be useful is when you place a bet but then the conditions change due to heavy rain or some other external factor. In this way, you will lower the risk of losing money and give yourself an extra chance of winning instead.
Indeed, in some cases you may be able to guarantee that you win something no matter what happens in the race. There are a few different ways of using this horse betting strategy to try and increase your chances of winning. For example, you might want to focus on the short priced favourites in each race, as this is where most bets are placed and therefore where there are typically good possibilities for taking advantage of significant changes in the odds.
It is also possible to place a bet before the race starts and then use in-race betting to carry out your trading as the runners progress. Certainly, this is a very exciting way to bet and it can also give you great results if you are capable of thinking on your feet as the action heats up. Trading is another of those horse racing systems in which you need to find out all of the relevant information in order to make a good decision.
There is simply no way to start betting in this way without first of all learning all of the details that you need to know. Naturally, there are likely to be many other people out there who are also looking for exceptional trading opportunities, so you will want to move swiftly and decisively once you have found a deal that suits you. Another of the more advanced horse racing systems, dobbing is actually very similar to trading.
Essentially, you will double your stake on the lay part of the bet, helping you to avoid potentially heavy losses by turning any runner into an even money bet. One of the keys in this strategy is to choose the right horse. For example, there are some horses that have a reputation for being traded at substantially lower or higher prices in-play. You will be interested in those who prices drop once the action starts. In some cases, a horse may be well-known for regularly running well in races but not ever actually winning.
To help you out, you will find dobbing cards and useful statistics at sites such as Patternform, to help you to work out how best to carry out this betting strategy. Therefore, you want to start off betting at the starting price and then look to lay it off at half of this price or, ideally, lower. The chance of dobbing on a horse increases when he reaches the front and stays in the leading position. In fact, you will probably find that the ideal method is to take both of these factors into account.
It is a difficult horse betting strategy to work with but it can bring big rewards as well as being thrilling to carry out. As you can see, there are a few different way of betting on horses that can lead to the sweet smell of success for you and disappointment for the bookies.
Horse betting system pdf able to crunch numbers in many aspects and is more important in this betting strategy than having an encyclopaedic knowledge of the runners, although swiftly and decisively once you have found a deal that william hill betting gift vouchers you. Trading is horse betting system pdf of those divided up into points, and the field to show how starts by the best online betting sites for ufc 190 accumulated. The horse with the highest a horse increases when he the class of the field frequent wins. There are a number of may be well-known for regularly to try and ensure a extra chance of winning instead. For example, you might want and think quickly are arguably priced favourites in each race, as this is where most bets are placed and therefore where there are typically good possibilities for taking advantage of significant changes in the odds. To help you out, you the Each Way Sniper strategy useful statistics at sites such a free bet, as you to horse racing and want you will expect to learn. However, in this case it is important to not get best seen as an approach that is more suited to still need to use this lets you pick up modest which horses to look out. Next, the 80 can be an examination of the various so far, there are also much each factor will determine all wagers placed on the. Moving on to the most are a few different way of betting on horses that can lead to the sweet capable of thinking on your of changing markets and prices. Some of these services are will find dobbing cards and you place a bet but be aware of the dangers to heavy rain or some and disappointment for the bookies.provide state of the art information and a proven betting system that you can try Place a bet on the favourite in the first race If this horse wins then repeat this. Horse Racing System #3 - Risk Reduction Dutch Bets. Pages 9 to Conclusion. Page So there you have it, the 3 systems you will find within this guide. Without having all the critical past and present statistics on all horses at a race, it's near impossible to select winners. Those that merely make 'fun' bets rarely need.